Roughriders hang on to top Lions in season opener
Football Betting Lines
07/04/2009 -
Regina, SK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Darian Durant threw for 313 yards and had a
rushing touchdown to help the Saskatchewan Roughriders to a 28-24 win over the
British Columbia Lions in the season opener for both clubs.
Durant went 18-for-32 with three interceptions and added 35 yards on the
ground for the Roughriders (1-0), who finished last season with a 12-6 record
but lost to the Lions in the Western Semi-Final game. Hugh Charles had 14
carries for 34 yards and a score.
Buck Pierce threw for 186 yards on 17-for-33 passing with a touchdown and two
interceptions and added a touchdown on the ground for the Lions (0-1), who
went 11-7 last season and lost to Calgary in the West Final. Emmanuel
Arceneaux had three catches for 40 yards and a score.
The Roughriders got the first score of the game as Durant's 10-yard touchdown
run gave the team a 7-0 lead a bit over five minutes in, and Jamie Boreham got
a single on the ensuing kickoff.
The Lions answered later in the first as Ryan Phillips stepped in front of a
pass and took it into the end zone from 60 yards out to make it an 8-7 game.
A 37-yard field goal off the foot of Luca Congi late in the first quarter gave
Saskatchewan an 11-7 lead.
A bit over four minutes into the second quarter, Charles took the ball into
the end zone from two yards out and on the Lions' ensuing drive, Stuart Foord
recovered a Paul McCallum fumble and took it into the end zone from 12 yards
out for a 25-7 lead.
With close to two minutes left in the first half, British Columbia cut into
its deficit as Arceneaux caught a 23-yard touchdown pass from Pierce to make
it a 25-14 game going into the break.
With under two minutes to play in the third quarter, Pierce ran the ball
into the end zone from six yards out, but the two-point conversion failed and
it was a 25-20 game heading into the final 15 minutes.
A single from British Columbia a bit over a minute into the four quarter made
it a four-point game, but a 22-yard field goal off the foot of Congi with a
bit over eight minutes to play gave the Roughriders a 28-21 lead.
The Lions had a golden opportunity to tie the game late in the fourth as a
blocked punt gave the team the ball in Saskatchewan territory, but the
Roughrider defense held tight and British Columbia was only able to get a 38-
yard field goal from McCallum with 2:01 to play.
The British Columbia defense held Saskatchewan on the ensuing possession to
give the offense one last chance, but the Roughriders defense stood tall to
hang on for the win.
Game Notes
Martell Mallett had six carries for 63 yards for British Columbia...Weston
Dressler caught seven passes for 156 yards for Saskatchewan...The Roughriders
defense has nine sacks in the game.
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Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “
What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.
Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.
A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)
The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.
For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."
“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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